Pages is beloved by statistical models, where his age adjusted approach in A+ portended elite power in the majors and a strong approach. Despite swing and miss concerns, he’s done enough at each level to project as a 45-50 grade hitter, with the raw power and leveraged swing to produce HR’s at a shocking clip, and enough walks to make him a plus regular

He’s got the arm for RF, along with the speed to play the position well there. This is an exciting, well rounded offensive talent, and for a guy who’s been overlooked for awhile, his ability to hit a ton of fly balls very ,very hard is going to make him a threat for 40 HRs in the bigs.

Power

Patient Approach

5 Tools

Wiemer quieted a Tunguskan loud swing in his pro debut, and the results were even more audible. He showed elite power and arm, with 30 HR power and some highlight reel throws in his run up to A+. The underlying contact quality is elite, and despite his massive size, he runs quite well and will have a modest impact on the bases, elevated by his aggressive play.

There’s still questions about his hit tool (K rates are still worrisome, pitch recognition is still a potential issue), but he’s improved so much in such a small time frame that I eagerly await his AA debut. With his size and explosive ability, he has a chance to be a fan favorite in Milwaukee.

Power

5 Tools

Laser Arm

Kjerstad underwent heart complication issues due to Cov-id last year, which meant he appeared in no MILB games, and no one has seen him play since 2020. It’s a complicating factor, but with him reportedly looking great in instructs as he returns to full health, I’m swayed by the fact that before the college season was shortened by Cov-id, he look on precipice of a full breakout, with the potential to be the 2nd best college bat behind Torkelson in his draft class.

Kjerstad combines potent raw power which grades out as a potential plus plus, with a knack for consistent hard contact that results in few mishit balls and weak contact. While there was some swing and miss concerns in his pre-draft profile due to an unusual setup at the plate, he was quieting them as his junior year continued, with a strong track record in the SEC buoying his profile. This is admittedly a data driven pick, as we haven’t seen Kjerstad live in a while, but pre-pandemic, this looked like a top 50 prospect.

Pure Hit

Power

Caissie, who looks exactly like he’s named, is a big, strong kid from Canada who came over in the Yu Darvish trade. Roundly mocked at the time for the meager return, the Cubs instead believed on the guys there were getting, especially Caissie, and they might have been right here.

Caissie utterly annihilated rookie ball, and showed prodigious raw pop that he gets to in games, and some give him 40 HR potential. Meanwhile, he didn’t show any red flags with his contact issues, instead using his patience to draw walks and find pitches to drive. Questions about his glove are overblown – he’s still raw out there, and needs to refine his instincts, but he’s not some lumbering sloth who’s a 1B/DH only. I think he’ll be an impact RF in the majors, but I’d like to see some full season performance first before getting too crazy.ht here.

Power

Patient Approach

Alcantara was an incendiary viewing for scouts in rookie ball, as his gangly frame but obvious elite power potential gave him an “it” guy look – meaning, he showed up on the field, hit a few balls in BP, and immediately made himself the guy to watch for the rest of the evening. He’s immensely projectable, with the frame to support elite in game power, and strong EVs that suggest it’s already coming on.

Despite his size and frame, he’s had a innate sense of how to use his arms and body in his swing, and he has performed so far, even with swing and miss concerns. Surprisingly, he has the speed and feel to play CF for now, which gives him some seriously nutty right tail outcomes, but a better CF will probably push him off, where his power and athleticism might still make him a star in RF. Right now, questions about his hit tool persists, and will make him either a high minors bust or a star.

Moonshot

Power

Projectable

Acquired by Texas for Mike Minor, Harris was a trendy sleeper heading into the 2021 season, with an innate feel for barreling the ball.

He then broke out, finally adding over the fence power to a strangely seductive fantasy skillset - he seems destined for LF in Tex, but has one of the best pure bats in the minors, average pop now, and surprising speed in this toolset. This kind of player lacks the upper echelon outcome you want from an elite spec, but he's a sure lock to at least be very good role player, with a good shot of starter upside.

Pure Hit

Sneaky Speed

Near Impact

Mayo’s swing is odd, which is fine, because it more than works to give him average or better hitting grades, and it allows him to tap into significant raw power that grades as well as double plus at maturity.

For someone with questions coming into his draft day about his approach and mechanics, he more than held up his own in A ball at 19, which is highly encouraging. I think there’s a potential special bat in here given the track record, power, and better than expected bat to ball skills, but his size and feel at 3B give pause on to whether he can stick at 1B.

Power

Patient Approach

Triantos is a hit tool prodigy. Much ado has been made about Termarr Johnson’s bat to ball abilities, but I believe Triantos’s is right there with him (The difference of course, is that Triantos can be a bit of a free swinger, while Termarr has an elite plate approach with a bit more juice). Triantos can put the fat part of the bat on any pitch in the zone, and frankly out of the zone as well, as he rarely swings and misses. He can combine that barrel accuracy with a vicious swing that produces above average power, though detractors will point out the quality of contact can play below that given he tends to chase bad pitches, and his raw power might end up as more average.

It’s a bit impossible to determine if this will work in the high minors and majors. Maybe his feel for hitting is so great, and his power ticks above average or better, and it turns him into an offensive star at 2B. At the same time, he can turn into a low OBP high contact hitter at 2B, who’s streaky given his pitfalls with less juice than you want from this profile – in other words, a very good bench bat or low end regular. Next year will be telling, as he will be making his full season debut in A ball.

Pure Hit

High Floor

When poring over Pasquantino’s profile, I was struck by how little weaknesses he had on offense. Does he have the statistical profile? He walked more than he struck out last year in AA, while showing considerable in game power, and most projections already have him as an impact bat in the majors.

Does he have the feel to hit to stay in the majors? Well, he struck out around 11% of the time last year, a ludicrous mark for a power hitter, and he gets raves for his approach/contact ability in the box. Does he have enough raw pop to profile? He struck baseball with a Max EV of 110 MPH+ last year, and has all fields power that can play even in Kauffman. While he’s not a bad defender at 1B, he’s also a DH only in KC given the soft touch of Nick Pratto at 1B. This gives him an extremely high bar to profile at DH, but by all accounts, he just might get there.

Pure Hit

High Floor

Near Impact

Yepez, who must be rejoicing with the arrival of the DH to the NL, had the most unexpected statistical breakout in the high minors besides Pasquantino. He added strength to his profile last year, which was the final missing piece to make him a potential ML regular. He shows plus patience and raw pop now, and given that his strong bat control allows him to get to any pitcher under the zone and limit K’s, there’s a strong hit power combination in place for impact as soon as next year.

High Floor

Near Impact

Patient Approach

Pereira has sublime bat speed, and has the ability to launch any pitch in any part of the zone out of the park. Better swing decisions enabled him to access his considerable raw power, and he went on a ridiculous HR binge in A/A+ ball. Combine that with his above average run, defense, and arm tools, and Pereira has a good jolt of upside in his profile. Questions remain about his hit tool – he swings and misses too much at in zone pitches – but a debut at AA next year should add legitimacy to his profile, though more advanced pitchers can take advantage of him with elevated fastballs.

Power

Sneaky Speed

Leonard is the guy on the list who is going to draw some blanks. He was a diminuitive middle IF in the Dodgers system, who showed a hit tool profile with little impact in game power, but blew up in 2021. Physical maturation, and better swing decisions that focused on driving pitches vs putting them in play initiated the breakout.

He’s small, but surprisingly explosive with a vicious swing that is controlled and produces substantial in game power now. He’s lacks any red flags for his approach, and he’s shown he’s comfortable hitting in any count and I think he hits his way all the way to the majors. He lacks any plus tools besides his hit tool, but is well rounded, and has the versatility to play all across the IF. These are the kind of glue guys teams need, and profiles best as a super utility guy who has the bat to be a plus regular.

Pure Hit

Sneaky Power

Groshans looked like a potential monster in 2019, before breaking his foot, missing the rest of the year, and Covid descended onto the world as a plague-like catastrophe. Groshans reemerged as a less exciting prospect, showing the actions for 3B, the feel for a plus hit tool and approach, but with less in game power than before. Where that power went, and if it comes back, will dictate the upside here, but he feels like a safe bet to be a ML player with regular upside if the power comes back in moderation, and a plus regular if it comes roaring back.

Pure Hit

High Floor

Near Impact

Frelick was a favorite of mine coming out of the draft. He’ll show you the Brett Gardner toolset – plus hit, elite speed, fit in CF or LF, with enough power to keep pitchers honest. He also came from a cold weather background that signal late blooming power in the near future as he optimizes his swing, and his fast, powerful hands have enough electricity to sneak HR’s out of the park

He’s a quick twitch athlete who’s missed reps over the past two years due to injury and covid, but he’s finally under pro ball instruction. He has all the tools to profile in the majors as an impact leadoff guy, and has the statistical performance to back it up as well.

Pure Hit

5 Tools

Sneaky Power

Knack was a dominant 5th year senior sign by the Dodgers, where he was utterly dominant in college, but at a small school at Eastern Tennessee State and given his advanced age, he fell in the draft to the back of the 2nd round. His pro debut couldn’t have gotten better – he walked a miniscule 1.19 BB/9 in AA, while showing surprising whiff inducing arsenal – and his velocity has continued to tick up into the mid 90’s. He shows 4 at least average pitches, with his elite command, gives him an easy #4/5 profile, and he has a chance to be more as his fastball and changeup touch plus. He’ll be 24 next year, but he continues to be one of the most underrated pitchers in the minors.

Command Artist

Spin King

High Floor

Jameson flamed AA this past year, whiffing nearly 14 guys per 9, and showing off a potential 5 pitch arsenal, led by a high 90’s fastball and plus slider that induces whiffs. He added a two-seamer to induce some groundouts, which is good because his command is merely average at best, and leads to some long counts. Meanwhile, his arm action, deceptive and expressive, adds to the woes for hitters, who struggle at times to pick up his pitches.

There’s definitely some downside risk here – his arm action might lead to injury, his command flattens out and relegates him to the BP – but he’s performed at the highest level since his college days, hasn’t showed decreased stuff in pro ball, and has 5 average and better pitches to fall back on, with the heat to thrive in any ballpark.

High Velocity

Spin King

#3 Profile

Ford was a late rising HS catcher in the draft process, but went in the high 1st to the Mariners on the strength of his elite bat speed, power potential, speed, and elite athleticism (He’s a lifting junkie who also has the agility to produce explosive actions in the field).

HS catchers are a notoriously terrible demographic to draft from, but Ford is hardly confined to that position (he’s a natural fit in CF), and his athleticism makes him far different from the average catcher. There’s no red flags with his contact ability, though the Mariners have worked on his swing to keep it longer in the zone and reduce potential whiff issues in the upper minors. The upside is a 25 HR, 25 Sb bat, if his swing is ironed out.

Power

Speed Demon

McLain was a polished hitter at UCLA, with a strong fit for 2B who showed enough arm and strong actions to be at 2B, with a possible fit at SS and CF. He’s a plus bat, maybe more given his long track record of hitting and a strong approach, but his power is limited to average at best given his mediocre exit velocities, and his run times are ticking down to average as well.

This is, I admit, not the most exciting profile, but I see a high floor, with a set of average supplemental tools, which should be enough for a regular at 2B. As an added bonus, McLain caught fire in the second half of his final year at UCLA, showing more impact potential, which gives him sneaky upside here.

Pure Hit

High Floor

Sweeney posted elite EV, swing decisions, and contact ability when compared to his college draft class, which makes him an awfully exciting middle IF bat.

He came from a small school background, which is why he lasted to the Yankees, but his performance there was so loud it didn’t matter, a la Colton Cowser. There’s still some polish to be made with his swing to limit mishits and up his average EV, but given the Yankees PD system, I’m confident he gets there. He’s probably not a long term SS given the presence of Volpe and Peraza in the same organization, but he’s an obvious fit at 2B with solid actions and athleticism.

Pure Hit

High Floor

Near Impact

Deyvison made his full season debut at 18, which was surprising given that he wasn’t exactly a famous IFA signee in his class. Still, it’s clear to see why. He showed elite raw power that might grow into 80 grade at his peak – he’s a bull with a bat in a china shop.

There’s questions about his approach and where he fits on defense (he’s a below average defender at 3B, though with a strong arm), so a larger sample size will be necessary, but holding his own in A ball at 18 is extremely promising for his future. If he’s an even 45 bat, it won’t matter where he plays because his bat will make him a star.

Power

As a lefty, Muller has extraordinary stuff from an imposing frame, which means he has his meal ticket set for the next 10 years or so. An elite fastball that generates big spin rates and whiffs, a plus slider, a plus curveball, a below average changeup – this is the kind of stuff goes in the top 5 of most MLB drafts.

But Muller badly lags in command, and his track record in the minors has been consistently underwhelming in this department. He’s made modest improvements over the past two years, but he’s 24 now, so he’s running out of time to stick as a starter. The upside is a #2 pitcher, but more often than not, these guys end up as closers.

High Velocity

Closer Upside

Near Impact

Bachman isn’t particularly tall but well built, a brutish body that matches a violent arsenal. He’ll show you a vicious double plus slider, then unleash an electric 101 MPH fastball. Even more, his angle of attack from the side makes it tough to pick up on his pitches, making him even more of a strikeout artists.

If you squint at his delivery and frame, you might see John Lackey, if Lackey was hammered from his 6’6 perch into a 6’1 frame. Unlike Lackey though, most evaluators are skeptical he’ll start thanks to his arm health issues and delivery, along with questions of his changeup coming along to round out his arsenal. There is some hope that the pitch will uptick with more usage, but he feels like a pretty safe bet to be a closer very soon.

High Velocity

Closer Upside

Near Impact

Most men won’t fight bears. Kyle Stowers might. At 6’3” 200 pounds, he takes vicious hacks that produce elite exit velos, makes enough contact to be a fringe below average hitter, and has an approach that projects as plus.

Stowers has the typical power over hit, plus arm profile for RF, but it’s mildly interesting to see that he can be passable at CF with his surprising speed. There’s a lot to like here after he held his own at AAA last year (albeit with a 35% K rate), but he might end up a streaky RF guy who has big power years, but big K ones as well.

Pure Hit

Sneaky Speed

Near Impact

The typical multi sport athlete (He starred in football and basketball as well) bet, Allen looks the part with a chiseled frame and easy actions, and shows impressive instincts with his approach and baserunning, which isn’t always there for players who split their focus.

With a singular focus on baseball, Allen projects to take a leap forward (he already did this past Spring, with a better swing and more in game power), and while he shows good instincts in CF, his speed is more above average than as a plus burner, and if he shifts into a corner, there’s more pressure on the bat developing more power. I think there’s a lot of positive indicators with him trending up and having a solid background in 3 sports, and he feels like a nice blend of upside and floor given his athletic gifts and in game performance.

5 Tools

Moonshot

Wells was one of the most polished bats in his draft class, and despite obvious questions of where he plays – He’s a 1B/LF only – his potential plus hit, plus power profile made him a potential plus regular.

While the raw power is still obvious, and his patience was evident in A ball, he swung and miss more than you would have liked from a high performing college bat who was 22 years old, and his hit tool seems more of a 50/55 than a true plus tool. I still like him, but a loud performance in AA can quiet some concerns about if his bat is enough to play at 1B/LF.

Near Impact

Patient Approach

Jones will show you the potential to be a fantasy baseball star – elite speed and basestealing instincts, along with plus power potential. He’s an easy fit in CF given his speed, though he has a chance at SS despite some erractic play there over the past year.

Still, as interesting as the right tail outcomes are, I’m skeptical given his pro level stats – he whiffs a ton, near 30% on his career – and his proclivity to chase and a swing that is not geared for HRs. He isn’t impactful much against lefties, and needs a lot more polish despite his age. I have him penciled in as an impactful bench bat, with room for upside as a star if everything clicks. It probably won’t though.

Speed Demon

Sneaky Power

Near Impact

Montgomery has exemplary tools – elite speed, CF fit, chance for plus raw power – with good in game performance in his HS and pro debut (not much in contact issues, but a lack of in game power) this past year. The issue is, and has always been, his swing, which has a rather larger hitch which might get exposed in the upper minors, and his feel in the batter’s box isn’t great.

Montgomery is admittedly someone I never followed closely in the draft process, but I will note his swing in BP this winter looks noticeably smoother, though it needs to be proved he can translate it to a game setting. If you believe in his hit tool, and that the Rockies can develop him properly, I think you have a potential fantasy star on your hand. He’s a priority follow in 2022.

Moonshot

Speed Demon

5 Tools

Man oh man. The excitement I have for Williams in the Guardians farm is high. I grew up watching big power pitchers like Josh Beckett and Josh Johnson – Williams stands at 6’6, can touch 100 with a lively fastball, show you a plus curve, above average slider, and a nascent changeup with average or better potential.

Pair that with average command and a strong track record in the NCAA (he dominated a loaded Vanderbilt lineup in the NCAA tournament before being drafted), its difficult to imagine him not breaking some top 100 lists in time, health permitting.

Ace Potential

High Velocity

High Floor

Bednar gets a lot of love from the data analytics community on twitter, with props mentioned for his biomechanical and pitch design data. I’m certainly not an expert on that, so I’m not going to pass judgement on those points, but it’s a part of his overall profile that buoys his value in the eyes of others.

Bednar shows a vicious 70 grade slider at his best, with a plus fastball that works in tandem with the slider to deliver high whiff rates. He doesn’t have a much used changeup right now – his two pitch mix was good enough to dominate the College World Series FWIW – but looks on it so far give it an average grade. There are no red flags in his command profile, so visually, statistically, this feels like a SP prospect with mid rotation upside, and a fallback as a late inning reliever.

Spin Rate

#3 Profile

High Velocity

Carter has several extremely factors in his favor as a prospect: He’s a lanky 6’4 CF prospect who can run and shows plus power potential, and statistically, put up one of the wonkiest BB rates (23.3%) in his pro debut at A ball.

Despite being considered an overdraft on draft day, he has plus power and run tools, might have an elite approach, and can stick at CF. This feels like an impact hitter at CF, who’s starting to accumulate the track record to back up this ranking, and dreams of a .380 OBP CF with 20/20 potential will make him a hot commodity.

Pure Hit

5 Tools

Patient Approach

Vientos was a famous prospect in his draft class, but fell due to swing and miss issues despite his young age and obvious power potential as his main selling points. In a way, this is the lens that he’s still viewed as. His power is elite – it’s the kind of power that almost makes baseball fun to watch – and despite a slightly uneven track record in the minors, he ended the year hot on the doorsteps of the majors, despite being 21 with a lost year under his belt.

He’s been young almost every stop of the way, held his own, adjusted and now plays a solid 3B, but even, this feels like a guy who’s going to have to prove once again he can hit enough/sharpen his approach to be a regular. I like him as a regular still, but his low OBP in the minors and swing and miss issues makes him feel like a streaky player with the occasional HR that might knock God onto his ass.

Power

Near Impact

Mitchell has performed like a future role player for awhile, and assuming no future tweaks with him, he’s a very strong 4th OF. With that said, his tools are star level – elite running ability, plus raw power, and a solid CF fit, with a good approach that keeps his head afloat.

Despite that, his swing is geared for little power, and his GB rate lends credence to the fact that he vaporizes most of his power with the wrong approach. He’s a fascinating prospect given his mixture of floor and upside, but visually and statistically, that upside hasn’t manifested yet.

Speed Demon

High Floor

Near Impact

Kowar, who proved very hittable in his MLB debut thanks to iffy command, finally came around with his 3rd pitch (curveball) that now flashes average to above average. Further refinement of the pitch has given way to a now complete #4 starter profile, led by his devastating changeup that racked up K’s.

If I felt better about the command, I could see a combination of Kauffman and an elite pitch heading a well rounded arsenal as a midrotation pitcher, but his command numbers have continually declined with each promotion, and wonder if while he can dominated lower minor guys with his stuff and get them to chase, his pitches out of the zone in the majors aren’t given much consideration at all.

High Floor

Near Impact

Kwan was teammates with Nick Madrigal and Adley Rutschman on those legendary Oregon teams, but wasn’t well regarded given that his frame and swing suggested 20 power, despite his obvious talent for hitting, speed, and CF defense.

But last year, he exploded in admittedly hitter friendly confines, adjusting his swing and approach to now produce 40 game power, which is leaps and bounds above where he was before. Combined with his best in the minors swinging strike and contact data, plus CF defense, and plus speed, this is at minimum a very good 4th OF, and now probably a Brett Gardner type who can compete for batting championships as a league average CF.

Pure Hit

High Floor

Near Impact

Lacy, who despite a horrific set of command numbers last year, still is well regarded as a prospect with his massive stuff. The issue with him is mechanics that degraded from his draft year to 2021, his stuff moves so much making it difficult to command, and the fact that even during his college years, his walk numbers were mediocre at 4 BB/9.

The stuff from a left hander is incredibly rare, which is why you shouldn’t bail out on him, but an erratic career like a similarly talented lefty in Carlos Rodon and Robbie Ray is still in play, but a BP future seems more and more likely.

Ace Potential

High Velocity

Spin King

Pomares is a fascinating RF prospect, who went from a seemingly hit first prospect with barely viable game power for a corner OF prospect to one who started showing 70 grade exit velos with an iffy approach in A+ this year.

Peep his 1% (!!!) walk rate in 104 PAs in A+ this year, with a 31% K rate. Still, he more then held his own there at that level, and the power upside here is sneakily elite. There’s a lot of statistical red flags here, but he’s performed everywhere, and the upside is a low OBP bopper in RF who can create highlights with a flick of the wrist.

Power

Allen is in a long line of Cleveland pitching prospects with exceptional feel to pitch/command, but who has more pedestrian stuff. And to be fair, Allen has better stuff than the typical Guardians’ pitching prospect – he’ll show a low to mid 90’s fastball that plays above his velocity, a slider with above average potential, and a plus changeup that is his bread and butter pitch. Lesser stuff has found its way into a rotation, and Allen’s statistical dominance at AA and feel for pitching means he’ll get to the majors soon, and be a quality #4/5 starter.

High Floor

Command Artist

Noel obliterated A ball and performed well at A+ at 19 years old, putting him in rare offensive company. The power is as a good as it gets at this age, and based on his EV data and remaining massed to be added on his frame, he probably gets to 80 raw power in the end.

Without any contact red flags in his profile, the only reason I’m not putting him higher on this list is qualitative concerns about his approach and chase rates, and the fact that he needs to hit all the way up the ladder as a R/R 1B. If he hits next year in AA though, it might be time to start popping him on top 100 lists.

Power

Jordan was one of the most famous HS bats in his draft class, but fell because a) he’s a R/R 1B, and b) his body was mostly mature, and his swing/approach created severe concerns that he would never get to his elite power that made him famous in the first place.

Well, with a scintillating pro debut, he answered some of the questions, as his hit tool proved more advanced than expected, but his approach was still too expansive, which only punts the final decision on him as a prospect down the road into the upper minors. Still, the fact that his hit tool/game power showed up in his full season debut means the excitement for him has grown. I have a hard time seeing him as a star at 1B given the approach issues, but will admit that he has a ML role of some kind, whether as a Matt Stairs-like PH god, or a solid regular who will let his power carry his otherwise mediocre profile.

Power

Wood, who was one of the most famous bats in his draft class, slid towards the 2nd round despite his obvious gifts – massive 6’7 frame with surprising speed, feel for CF, true 80 raw power, the ability to inspire utter fear with a glare – because he swung and missed too much, and whispers about his makeup dogged him throughout the draft process.

The Padres jumped on him, and adjusted his setup to make him more direct to the ball in his pro debut, and the results were strong (annihilation of the AZL, good walk rates) though with some caveats (32% K rate). So far with him, we have a year of qualitative and quantitative data, with results trending up thanks to smart adjustments from the padres PD staff. A full season debut should clear up most of the mixed reviews, one way or the other.

Moonshot

5 Tools

Power

Vaquero is the projection bet of this IFA class, with the frame to play any sport he chooses. He’s a highlight machine in CF, leveraging his impact speed and arm to erase potential hits, and the athleticism to make acrobatic players. At the plate, his frame and uppercut swing point to potential elite power outcomes, and his fiery speed serves him well as a stolen base demon.

Truthfully, I have no clue if he hits – his ability to switch hit is a positive development, and his swing shows no obvious hitches – but the upside here is a plus CF with elite power and speed ability, which is the type of prospect that goes in the top 5 of amateur drafts.

Power

Moonshot

God's Glove

Arias is the typical elite IFA SS bet, who will give you plus contact ability, a frame to grow into potential impact power, and the speed, arm, instincts to stay at SS as his body matures. If all goes well, he’ll end up as a plus hitter, plus power bat, with a glove to fit snugly at SS. Like all IFAs, his ability to hit and how his body develops will dictate the outcome here, and while I feel stronger about his hit tool/approach than Vaquero, he lacks the requisite explosive athleticism and power/speed combo upside.

Pure Hit

5 Tools

Projectable

Aranda, besides Pasquantino and Kwan, might have had the best under the radar minor league season last year, dominating AA with his blend of feel to hit, average pop, and disciplined approach.

Reviews on his power translating to the majors are more mixed, but he combines a very hitterish profile and defensive versatility to give him a floor of a strong utility guy (think Joey Wendle), but the upside to be a regular if he hits for enough in game power. Frankly, given his statistical output, I think he’ll be ready for the bigs mid next year, and will be in a long line of future do it all Rays role players.

Pure Hit

Patient Approach

Near Impact

Montgomery came from a cold weather background with starring roles in basketball and football, but shows surprisingly solid baseball instincts and approach at the plate. His frame portends to future plus raw power or more, and his defensive skills, arm, above average speed give him a solid foundation at SS.

Admittedly, there isn’t the longest track record with Montgomery, but he’s an excellent athlete with a background that points to late blooming growth, and unlike Courtney Hawkins, the last HS hitter the White Sox draft, Montgomery seems to have a good understanding of the zone with better swing mechanics. A tooled up dude with built in baseball skills gives you potential elite outcomes, outweighing players with a more concrete floor.

5 Tools

Projectable

Burdick is a bit like the hitter version of Bachman, showing a stilted profile with an elite skill (power, patience) carrying an unbalanced approach and concerning whiff issues. He needs more time in AAA next year, which isn’t great given he’s already 25, and his run at AA (low BA, 30%K rate) wasn’t exactly inspired either.

Still, his surprising average speed and feel for CF adds in some nuanced outcomes here. While there’s admittedly a scarily low floor here – a corner OF who simply doesn’t hit enough – his proximity and carrying tools gives you a nice mixture of upside and short term impact.

Power

Sneaky Speed

Near Impact

Jones was a top 100 prospect for the longest times based on his immense raw power and elite approach, but his numbers cratered at AAA. He has two major issues 1) he swings and misses too much for comfort, especially against lefties, with poor bat control 2) he hits way too many groudballs that reduces his in game power.

In a way, he’s similar to other young 3B like Ke’Bryan Hayes or Alec Bohm who have considerable raw power, but who hit too many groundballs. Unlike them though, Jones lacks the feel to hit which buoys optimism they can rebound as regular. Jones’ saving grace is his ability to draw walks at an elite clip, and defensive versatility to play in the OF and 3B/1B. He projects as a very strong platoon bat, or a low end regular is he remedies his issues.

Power

Patient Approach

Near Impact

Strider went from a 4th round pick in 2020 to making his debut late last year, on the strength of an upper 90’s fastball that he can throw anywhere, anytime, and blow away opponents at the top of the zone.

It’s a mixture of his arm action/deception and spin metrics that give it the impression of riding up in the zone, and paired with his vertical break slider, which has gained a ton of consistency in the past two years, makes him as lethal as any weapon coming out of the bullpen. At the moment, it’s difficult to put him in the rotation as his changeup needs more repetition to even be average, but given time, his lack of red flags with his command/delivery point to a potential midrotation outcome if the pitch comes along.

Closer Upside

High Velocity

Near Impact

Canterino, who I admit haven’t tracked much until this writeup, gave me one of a few surprises with his pitching form. He’ll yank, strut, and wrap the ball behind his back before slinging it to home, giving an incredibly uncomfortable look to batters. Frankly, it was even uncomfortable to watch on Youtube.

Combined that with his deep arsenal that he commands well, it makes him a potential strikeout monster. Unfortunately, that same delivery has probably caused some undue stress on his elbow, and he just can’t seem to stay healthy. Given his profile, he makes sense as a RP who can give you a different look, then burn a few innings while embarrassing ML hitters.

Closer Upside

Spin King

Wilcox, who had TJS surgery in late 2021, so he’ll be out for all of 2022, will probably end up a reliever thanks to his health robbing him of valuable development time. He’ll show two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, but mixed reviews on his changeup and command leave his future in the rotation in doubt. I admit this is a dicier proposition after his injury, but there’s still a solid chance his command/changeup tick up to give him a mid-rotation profile.

Closer Upside

Waters, who starting to look like a typical tools undone by approach hitter, stalled in AAA for a repeat this year, with his approach diluting his contact quality. It’s a shame, because he’ll show you plus power, arm, and speed, giving him sizeable upside at CF. But a repeat performance like this at AAA probably removes him from most serious prospect consideration, but his supplementary tools give him a floor as an interesting 4th OF.

High Floor

Near Impact

5 Tools

Vanasco got TJS after breaking out in instructs in 2022, which forced him to miss the entire 2021 season. It’s a shame, because he desperately needs reps as he hasn’t pitched in a real game in about two years, and his command currently projects to be below average. On the plus side, he’ll show a dominant fastball, plus curve, plus changeup, and average slider, which is the stuff of TOR pitcher, but most likely an elite RP with all his time missed and command issues.

High Velocity

Spin King

Closer Upside